Salish Sea Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus) spawning habitat distribution, population trajectory, and threats
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus) are a small forage fish that play a significant role in the nearshore ecosystems of the Salish Sea, a highly biodiverse and densely populated inland sea in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Despite this important role, sand lance are data deficient. Little information about the species' habitat distribution, population status, and the threats it faces are available across their entire range making management and policy decisions difficult. Concerned conservation organizations and scientists throughout the Salish Sea, have been gathering observations of sand lance and other forage fish species since 2001. Increasing participation in community science surveys for intertidal Pacific sand lance spawning habitat has resulted in the detection of eggs on >90 beaches in the Canadian Salish Sea between 2001 and 2021. Using these data, I developed a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) habitat suitability model and found that less than 6% of the intertidal zone of the Canadian Salish Sea is likely to provide suitable spawning habitat for sand lance. To better understand how to conserve this species and their limited and rare habitat, I worked with 38 experts to conduct a population and vulnerability assessment for Salish Sea sand lance via a three-part structured expert elicitation. Under ‘business as usual’ the survey results suggest sand lance populations are in decline and impacts associated with climate change, pollution, and human development consistently ranked as the highest threats of concern.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".