Estimation of latitudinal shift of Calanus from 1959 to 2004 using generalized additive models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
No abstracts are to be cited without prior reference to the author. This study aims to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) in the North Atlantic Ocean, and to assess how much of this shift may be due to sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey was compared with that predicted from simulation experiments: 1) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, 2) a model using temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and 3) a model using both factors combined, cross-validated. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift estimated as 8.1 km per decade in North Atlantic (16.5 km per decade for the Northeast Atlantic) associated with sea warming. This value is lower than that reported by previous studies for zooplankton assemblages in the Northeast Atlantic. C. helgolandicus population has expanded in all directions. C. glacialis and C. hyperboreus, shifted southward, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".