The effects of School Shooting on State Legitimacy: Evidence from Serbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The tragic event of the first ever school shooting in Serbia on the 3rd of May and its aftermath, left the citizens of Serbia in a state of shock. The event took place in an elementary school in central Belgrade and the perpetrator murdered 9 people - 8 students, of which most of them were female and one male school security officer. One day after, Serbia experienced a second shooting in a smaller locality close to the city of Mladenovac with the perpetrator murdering 8 people and wounding 14. Prior to these events, the author collected pilot data (27th and 28th of April) for a separate ongoing project in which undergraduate students of Serbia have been responding to a survey including among else, a number of questions on state legitimacy (preregistered at OSF under the name: “The effects of ETIAS policy on State Legitimacy: Evidence from Serbia” ) As the data gathering for this project will continue over the course of the next following weeks, this data could be utilized to analyze the effects of this tragic event on the perceived levels of state legitimacy among the undergraduate students in Serbia. Drawing on the extensive literature on the “rally around the flag” effects during the times of crisis (see for example: Godefroidt, 2022; Kritzinger etl al. 2021) this paper will examine the effects of the first ever school shooting on state legitimacy in Serbia. I will treat the school shooting as an unexpected event and estimate the causal effects of the school shooting on state legitimacy. I rely on the pilot data (N= 42) collected for the purposes of another study as my pre-event group and compare it with the responses collected after the event using a number of statistical techniques.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.041 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.009 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".