PalVol: A proxy-based semi-stochastic ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric aerosol for the last glacial cycle (Version 1)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Project: PalMod2 - From the last interglacial to the anthropocene - modeling a complete glacial cycle. The PalMod project (https://www.palmod.de/) aims for a better understanding of how slow feedbacks in the Earth system operate. Using the new insights into Earth system dynamics, PalMod will also make projections of the future climate over the next few millennia. The project PalMod is in the second phase. Summary: This data set is an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) and stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) over the last 130,000 years that is based primarily on terrestrial and marine tephra records. VSSI values are computed as a simple function of eruption magnitude, based on VSSI estimates from ice cores and satellite observations for identified eruptions. To correct for the incompleteness of the tephra record, we include stochastically generated synthetic eruptions, assuming a constant background eruption frequency from the ice core Holocene record. SAOD is provided using the VSSI as input to the EVA stratospheric aerosol forcing generator.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".