Hypothesis Testing in Adaptively Randomized Experiments: Using the Allocation Probabilities for Inference
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Adaptive experiments are increasingly being used in many fields including education to improve learning experiences and instructional strategies. Compared to traditional randomized control experiments, adaptive experiments allow for more dynamic data collection procedures based on real-time accumulating data. This makes them ideal in situations where a balance of exploration and exploitation is needed to optimize decision making and outcomes. However, the analysis and inference of data from such adaptive methods, especially those using bandit algorithms, remains a challenging task. In particular, this paper addresses the problem of hypothesis testing. We discuss a novel approach to testing, based on the allocation probabilities of the underlying design. Then, we explore alternative variants of this allocation probability test and examine their behavior in different experimental settings with varying sample sizes and base success rates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.179 | 0.497 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.014 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.006 | 0.009 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".