The validity of electronic health data for measuring smoking status: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Smoking is a risk factor for many chronic diseases. Multiple smoking status ascertainment algorithms have been developed for population-based electronic health databases such as administrative databases and electronic medical records (EMRs). Evidence syntheses of algorithm validation studies have often focused on chronic diseases rather than risk factors. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of smoking status ascertainment algorithms to describe the characteristics and validity of these algorithms. Methods The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. We searched articles published from 1990 to 2022 in EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science with key terms such as validity, administrative data, electronic health records, smoking, and tobacco use. The extracted information, including article characteristics, algorithm characteristics, and validity measures, was descriptively analyzed. Sources of heterogeneity in validity measures were estimated using a meta-regression model. Risk of bias (ROB) in the reviewed articles was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. Results The initial search yielded 2086 articles; 57 were selected for review and 116 algorithms were identified. Almost three-quarters (71.6%) of algorithms were based on EMR data. The algorithms were primarily constructed using diagnosis codes for smoking-related conditions, although prescription medication codes for smoking treatments were also adopted. About half of the algorithms were developed using machine-learning models. The pooled estimates of positive predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.843, 0.672, and 0.918 respectively. Algorithm sensitivity and specificity were highly variable and ranged from 3 to 100% and 36 to 100%, respectively. Model-based algorithms had significantly greater sensitivity (p = 0.006) than rule-based algorithms. Algorithms for EMR data had higher sensitivity than algorithms for administrative data (p = 0.001). The ROB was low in most of the articles (76.3%) that underwent the assessment. Conclusions Multiple algorithms using different data sources and methods have been proposed to ascertain smoking status in electronic health data. Many algorithms had low sensitivity and positive predictive value, but the data source influenced their validity. Algorithms based on machine-learning models for multiple linked data sources have improved validity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.088 | 0.211 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.025 | 0.045 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.017 | 0.015 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".