The Economic Significance of Aspects of Canada's International Payments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study seeks to clarify a number of issues of current concern that are related to the Canadian balance of payments. These issues are analyzed within a theoretical framework the essence of which is that, in the long run, the balance of payments reflects savings, investment and portfolio balance choices. In the short run, however, exogenous shocks and the effects of business cycles may exert a preponderant influence on particular components of the balance of payments. Short-run equilibrium is achieved in general by an induced movement of short-term capital which may have implications for the exchange rate. In the long run, current account deficits are not sustainable if they correspond to declining net real domestic wealth per capita. To judge whether this is the case, savings and investment data are examined. Two adjustments should be made to published savings, investment and balance of payments data: removal of the inflation premium in net interest payments, and inclusion of net retained earnings of foreign firms as a payment. The adjusted data do not suggest that the Canadian current account has been on a trend towards unsustainably large deficits, since domestic savings have remained relatively high. Another important issue is the effect on the balance of payments of Canadian takeovers of foreign-owned firms. Although it is too early yet to say whether the repatriations in 1981 are likely to yield a net national gain in the long run, published net services payments will be increased for years unless the real rate of return on equity is substantially above the real interest rate. Finally, because the cyclical behaviour of the balance of payments will vary depending upon the underlying sources of the cycle, it does not seem advisable to base macroeconomic policy on some target level of the current account balance. Policies that foster appropriate incentives for domestic saving and investment are more likely to solve the basic problems than are measures designed merely to alter transactions with non-residents.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".