Data and literature repository for "Climate Futures are Political Futures: Integrating Political Development Into the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)"
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The datasets provided in the repository (listed in Table 1 of the manuscript): Governance (Andrijevic et al., 2020)* Government effectiveness (Andrijevic et al., 2020)* Violent conflict (Hegre et al., 2016) Rule of law (update to the Soergel et al., 2021) *Please note that these two variables can be found in the same data file. The indicators can also be retrieved through the SSP Extensions Explorer. For applications of the projections of political indicators in further analyses, please consult the following references: Brutschin, E., Pianta, S., Tavoni, M., Riahi, K., Bosetti, V., Marangoni, G., & Van Ruijven, B. J. A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16(6), 064069. Gidden MJ, Brutschin E, Ganti G, Unlu G, Zakeri B, Fricko O, et al. Fairness and feasibility in deep mitigation pathways with novel carbon dioxide removal considering institutional capacity to mitigate. Environmental Research Letters 2023, 18(7): 074006. Hoch JM, de Bruin SP, Buhaug H, Von Uexkull N, van Beek R, Wanders N. Projecting armed conflict risk in Africa towards 2050 along the SSP-RCP scenarios: a machine learning approach. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16(12): 124068. Joshi DK, Hughes BB, Sisk TD. Improving governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario forecasting the next 50 years. World Development 2015, 70: 286-302. Moyer JD. Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty. World Development 2023, 165: 106188. Moyer JD, Turner SD, Meisel CJ. What are the drivers of diplomacy? Introducing and testing new annual dyadic data measuring diplomatic exchange. Journal of Peace Research 2021, 58(6): 1300-1310. Petrova, K, Olafsdottir, G, Hegre, H, Gilmore, EA (2023). The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 2023, 18(2), 024028.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.058 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.016 | 0.033 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.437 | 0.178 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".