Clyde Foreland Lake, Nunavut CO2 Concentration and d14C Data over the past 12.5 kiloannum
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent anthropogenic warming in the Arctic has caused accelerated permafrost thaw, leading to the export of relict organic carbon (OC) to the atmosphere and surrounding depositional environments. Past episodes of warmth exceeding pre-industrial temperatures, such as the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 11 to 8 kiloannum (ka) at our study site), may serve as an analogue for how the Arctic carbon cycle responds to ongoing warming. We reconstructed accumulation rates of three OC endmembers (contemporaneous aquatic biomass, postglacial soil, and MIS 5 soil) at Lake CF8, northeastern Baffin Island, during the 12.4 kyr (kiloyear) since local deglaciation. We characterized OC endmembers and downcore sediment mixtures using Ramped Pyrolysis/Oxidation (RPO), radiocarbon (14C) age offsets between bulk sediment and macrofossils, and stable carbon isotopes (δ13C). We modeled endmember contributions to the lake sediment using the Bayesian mixing framework, MixSIAR. RPO revealed similar patterns between OC volatilization and pyrolysis temperature indicating minimal OC degradation between source and sink. Endmember OC accumulation rates, accounting for MixSIAR results, sedimentation, and total OC content, showed that mean postglacial soil inputs to Lake CF8 were greatest between 11.9 and 9.0 ka, 1.5 times greater than the rest of the record. This period coincided with regional peak Holocene summer temperatures (up to 5 °C (celsius) warmer than the pre industrial average), despite having low 14C age-offsets. Since modern Arctic temperatures have already warmed by 2-3 °C, similar to the HTM, regional permafrost may be mobilized at the same rates that we estimate for the early Holocene.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".