An Econometric Model of Canadian-U.S. Trade in Automotive Products 1965-1971
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper I describe the construction and estimation of a simple model of Canadian-U.S. trade in automotive products during a period of the implementation of the historic Automotive Agreement (1965-1971). Two conditions of the Agreement - that the privilege of duty-free importation of parts and vehicles into Canada is restricted to bona fide manufacturers, and that these manufacturers accept a commitment to increase Canadian value added in production at a rate governed by the rate of growth of North American vehicle sales in the Canadian market - are viewed in the model as a means of providing an implicit subsidy to Canadian automotive producers. Given duty-free trade in automotive products over the Canadian border, one could say that, in principle, multinational corporations are maximizing profit subject to the side conditions imposed by the agreement. The implication is that exports and imports are simultaneously determined. Unfortunately, however, it was not possible to model the process in this way. Instead exports are first determined, and then imports are determined as a recursive function of exports. In this way I recognize (but do not attempt to explain) the fact that Canada has specialized in vehicle assembly under the terms of the agreement and has become a net exporter of assembled motor vehicles and a net importer of motor vehicle parts. In my final analysis several variations on two reduced-form equations have been estimated: ie, Canadian (1961) constant- dollar exports and imports are explained. The tentative conclusion reached is that the subsidy-growth nexus implicit in the terms of the agreement was a crucial determinant of the rapid rate of expansion and rationalization of the Canadian automotive industry during the period 1965-1971.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".