Ten years of emergency contraception in Italy (2012–21) in the context of the second contraceptive revolution|Dieci anni di contraccezione d’emergenza in Italia (2012–21) nel contesto della seconda rivoluzione contraccettiva
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Two emergency contraception pills (ECPs) can be purchased without prescription in Italy by adults: since May 2015 (ulipristal acetate UPA) and June 2016 (levonorgestrel LNG). The liberalization of the sale of ECPs has contributed to accelerating the second contraceptive revolution in Italy, mainly reducing unwanted pregnancies for single people. In October 2020, the sale of UPA was liberalized to minors. We measure the effects of LNG and UPA liberalization as well as of the COVID-19 lockdown on sales of ECPs, conceptions and abortions by monthly data on sales and individual data on conceptions by outcomes, studying discontinuity of abortion ratios by regression models. We also show the effects of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown on ECPs sales. At most, one quarter of the decline in the conception rate between 2014 and 2016 was due to liberalization, reducing mainly abortions. Sales of UPA increased after liberalization for minors. The lockdown of March-May 2020 reduced ECP sales, conceptions and abortions, revealing that a large part of ECPs are used after sexual intercourse outside cohabiting couples.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".