Natural disease progression in finger osteoarthritis: results from a 10 year follow-up cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective: Limited evidence is available about long-term natural disease progression in hand osteoarthritis (HOA). The objective is to study natural radiographic and clinical disease progression in HOA after longer follow-up (i.e. 10 years) and to identify predictors for progression. Method: At baseline (T0), 270 patients with HOA were included in the Belgian HOA register. The majority (84.8%) was female and the mean age was 62.9 years. In total, 154 (57%) and 106 (39.3%) patients consented to follow-up after approximately 5 (T1) and 10 years (T2), respectively. Clinical and functional outcome measures were collected. Hand radiographs were taken and scored according to the anatomical phase scoring system. Results: At T2, most of the patients (73.3%) showed any radiographic progression compared to T0. Remodelling was most frequently seen and new erosive joints rather rarely. Functional Index for Hand Osteoarthritis (0–30) and Australian/Canadian Osteoarthritis Hand Index function (0–90) increased over time, from 8.8 to 9.9 (p = 0.017) and 39.3 to 41.9 (p = 0.035), respectively, after T2. Visual analogue scale pain (0–100) did not change (40.2 to 38.6 from T0 to T2, p = 0.656). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression retained baseline soft-tissue swelling [odds ratio (OR) 8.20 and 8.76, respectively], higher levels of pain (OR 4.08 and 4.30), and number of baseline erosive joints (OR 31.82 and 30.02) as significant predictors for radiographic progression. Conclusions: Significant radiographic progression is seen over time in HOA. While pain remains similar after 10 years, functional status declines. Patients with soft-tissue swelling, high levels of pain, and already erosive disease at baseline are prone to progression over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".