Two statistical problems for multivariate mixture distributions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We address two important statistical problems: that of estimating mixtures of multivariate normal distributions and mixtures of $t$-distributions based on univariate projections, and that of quantifying a discrepancy between mixture distributions induced by two model-based clusterings. In the second problem, rather than introducing a direct metric on partitions, we propose a model-based distributional discrepancy between the fitted mixture distributions associated with two clusterings. The results are based on an earlier work of the authors, where it was shown that mixtures of multivariate Gaussian or $t$-distributions can be distinguished by projecting them onto a certain predetermined finite set of lines, the number of lines depending only on the total number of distributions involved and on the ambient dimension. We also compare our proposal with robust versions of the expectation-maximization method EM. In each case, we present algorithms for effecting the task, and compare them with existing methods by carrying out some simulations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".