Birth quake: The baby boom and its aftershocks (Review)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Review of Birth quake: The baby boom and its aftershocks, by Diane J. Macunovich: The multiplicity of impacts emanating from a generation being smaller or larger than its parents' generation has concerned demographers since the 1970s when the issue was the focus of work by Richard Easterlin. The baby boom -- the substantial rise and then fall in birth rates in many industrialized countries during the 1940s to 1960s - has given rise to much interesting debate on its causes and consequences. For example, a considerable amount of literature now exists on the likely social and economic impacts of the baby boom generation moving into the retirement ages over the first quarter of this century (in areas such as pensions and healthcare costs, the "grey" vote, changes in demand for products, and so on). Diane Macunovich has played an important role in the investigation of the baby boomers and cohort size fluctuations in general over the last decade. Synthesising previous work by the author, this book focuses on "how so much of the social and economic change over the last 50 years has been related to the post-WWII baby boom and that generation's passage through the life cycle" (p. 2). The principal focus of the book is the United States. As the author notes in chapter 5, early studies on cohort effects placed quite a lot of importance on relative cohort size. These studies concluded that the crowding of the labour market by the large baby boom cohorts resulted in lower wages relative to smaller cohorts because younger workers are not perfect substitutes for older workers with more skills and experience.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".