Evaluating climate change risk at Ireland’s Tentative World Heritage Sites
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In 2022 the updated Irish World Heritage Tentative List (WHTL) was submitted to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). This contained three sites: the Passage Tomb Landscape of County Sligo; the Transatlantic Cable Ensemble: Valentia–Heart’s Content, County Kerry; and the Royal Sites of Ireland. This list is a necessary initial step towards receiving the coveted UNESCO World Heritage (WH) site designation, and sites must demonstrate the potential for Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) to be added to the list. In 2023 the UNESCO General Assembly ratified the Updated Policy Document on Climate Action for World Heritage. This explicitly calls on member states to consider the impacts of climate change in the nomination of properties for inscription on the WH List and to ensure that adequate strategies are in place to protect and preserve OUV. This report proposes a methodology and initial results for assessing the climate risk to all three Tentative List Sites, based on a thorough mapping of values and attributes as outlined during the Tentative List nomination process. It assesses potential impacts on these attributes based on future hazards identified from downscaled climate change projections for temperature and precipitation change and sea-level rise. Results indicate a wide range of potential hazards indicative of the varied nature of the three sites. These results should be understood as an initial assessment of climate risk to OUV and not as a wider assessment of site or community values, which require further assessment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".