Modeling of development processes of bilateral trade and economic integration between countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The article dwells upon the main stages of analyzing economic effects of the free trade area between countries, while reviewing \nfeatures of bilateral trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and Canada in terms of global transformations. The article \nidentifies opportunities and threats as well as strengths and weaknesses of bilateral relations under contemporary integration \nprocesses, while also providing substantiation of the promising areas of bilateral trade and economic cooperation between \ncountries. \nThe article comprises a gravity model and a forecast of quantitative indicators related to bilateral trade between Ukraine and \nCanada for the period of up to 2021 developed by the authors based on this model. Using the gravity modeling method, the \nimpact of economic crisis manifestations in Ukraine and Canada on trade turnover between them has been assessed, while a \nconclusion has been drawn that the greatest impact on bilateral trade is produced by Canada’s GDP, whereas the change in price \nof logistical costs produces little effect on the turnover. The quantitative indicators of foreign trade between the two countries \nhave been forecast under two scenarios: without the free trade area and with the latter created in 2017. Under the first scenario, \na slight increase in trade turnover is expected due to the slow growth of GDP values both in Canada and Ukraine. Under the \nsecond scenario, by 2021 the trade turnover between the countries will increase twice and amount to USD 411 million. \nУ статті розглянуто основні етапи аналізу економічних ефектів зони вільної торгівлі між країнами. Оцінено особливості \nдвостороннього торговельно-економічного співробітництва України та Канади в умовах глобальних трансформацій. \nВизначено можливості, загрози, а також сильні й слабкі сторони двосторонніх відносин в умовах сучасних інтеграційних \nпроцесів. Побудовано гравітаційну модель і розроблено на її основі прогноз кількісних показників двосторонньої \nторгівлі України й Канади до 2021 р. Обґрунтовано перспективні напрями двостороннього торговельно-економічного \nспівробітництва країн. \nВ статье рассмотрены основные этапы анализа экономических эффектов зоны свободной торговли между странами. \nОценены особенности двустороннего торгово-экономического сотрудничества Украины и Канады в условиях \nглобальных трансформаций. Определены возможности, угрозы, а также сильные и слабые стороны двусторонних \nотношений в условиях современных интеграционных процессов. Построена гравитационная модель и на ее основе дан \nпрогноз количественных показателей двусторонней торговли Украины и Канады до 2021 г. Обоснованы перспективные \nнаправления двустороннего торгово-экономического сотрудничества стран.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".