Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [September 2017]
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Scottish economy returned to growth in the first 3 months of 2017. The upturn was driven by a bounce back in a number of manufacturing sectors. These same sectors had been some of the hardest hit in recent times, so holding on to such gains will be a success in its own right. Scottish unemployment is now at its lowest rate since the Labour Force Survey was first collected back in 1992. But newly revised data published last month confirmed that the economy contracted – albeit marginally – in 2016. And growth over the year remains below trend. The latest leading indicators suggest that the economy continues to recover, albeit at a relatively fragile pace. The latest Fraser of Allander – Royal Bank of Scotland Scottish Business Monitor published in July showed both a rise in repeat business and in new orders. The latest surveys also show that some sectors – such as tourism – have had a relatively buoyant summer. However, households still appear wary of the economic outlook. Consumer confidence remains negative with Scottish households more concerned about the outlook than those in the UK.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.010 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".