Relationship between Climate-Induced Changes and Spatial-Temporal Trends of the Bathurst Caribou Herd During Rapid Population Decline (1997-2017)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Bathurst caribou herd is a population of migratory barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) that inhabits the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. Similar to many caribou populations globally, the Bathurst herd has experienced a dramatic population decline, from an estimated 472,000 animals in 1986 to 6,240 in 2021. Concerns have arisen that climate change and land-use changes may be altering habitat characteristics, leading to shifts in range distribution. The summer range on the sub-Arctic tundra is crucial for caribou to access nutritious forage after long winter months and calving, and before the fall breeding season. This research analyzed collar telemetry data obtained by the Government of the Northwest Territories to assess the summer range distribution of Bathurst caribou from 1997 to 2017. Annual summer range distribution, home range extents, and core-use areas were determined using kernel density estimation for each year’s data. Subsequently, a Theil-Sen regression analysis identified spatial trends in summer range distribution. These analyses revealed a significant northward shift and contraction of the herd over time, with increased use northwest of Contwoyto Lake. Results of the Theil-Sen analysis, combined with various climatic and environmental variables, informed the development of two random forest models examining the influence of habitat characteristics on changes in caribou use. Results indicated that increases in temperature trends above 0.10 degrees Celsius, delayed snow melt timing, delayed SOS and increased maximum EVI were all associated with decreases in relative summer habitat use by the herd. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for land-use decisions and the establishment of protected areas within the herd’s range, aiming to prevent extinction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".