An Evaluation of Risk/Need Factors for Adult Women with Violent Offenses
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The present study examines the validity, reliability, and psychometric properties of forensic risk [Violence Risk Scale (VRS), Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), Saskatchewan Primary Risk Assessment (SPRA), Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA)) and protective tools (Structured Assessment of Protective Factors(SAPROF)] as well as the importance of including gender informed variables (co-offending, suicidality, substance use) in risk assessment for adult justice involved women with histories of violence. The total sample consisted of 246 provincially sentenced women in Saskatchewan who had perpetrated a violent index offence in 2018 or 2019. Of the 246, 188 cases had enough information available within corrections files to be rated on the forensic tools and gender informed variables. Recidivism information was collected after file-based ratings were made and was available for the entire sample (N = 246) over a mean follow-up time of approximately five years. The forensic measures and their component/factors demonstrated good inter-rater reliability (ICC = 0.81 – 0.98). Generally, there was also strong convergent validity amongst the forensic tools, with correlations in the large range. Predictive accuracy evidence was obtained for all five tools with respect to violent, non-violent, and general recidivism at fixed follow up times and for total recidivism. Area under the curve (AUC) values varied based on the tool and the type of recidivism, but generally fell in the moderate (AUC = 0.64 – 0.70) to large (AUC = 0.71 – 0.83) range for the total sample. Calibration analyses further supported the ability of the VRS and SPRA to differentiate between low, medium, and high-risk justice involved women (depending on recidivism type). Depending on recidivism and the tool it was compared against, the gender informed variables uniquely predicted recidivism suggesting the importance of considering these variables when examining risk for justice involved women. There were high rates of intimate partner and familial violence, and gang affiliation was significantly related to higher rates of recidivism. The present study provides vital evidence for the use of these forensic tools and gender informed variables to inform risk, needs, and responsivity variables in justice involved women. Limitations and future directions are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".