Cooperation, Competition, and Climate Change: The Canada-Russia Relationship and the Case of Arctic Exceptionalism
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Faculty: Master’s Degree Program in Russian Studies (MARS) Carter Boone, MA Student Master’s Thesis May 2022 Number of pages: 57 Keywords: Canada, Russia, Arctic Exceptionalism, Great Power Competition Supervisor: Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen Helsinki University Library Abstract: Canada and Russia have a long history of cooperation in the Arctic region. The two see themselves as Arctic great powers responsible for agenda setting and institution building in the region. This long history of cooperation has fueled the perception of the Arctic as an exceptional zone of peace where often competing powers shield the region from extra-regional conflict in favour of cooperation in science, technology, climate change, and business-to-business linkages. The notion of the Arctic as a zone of peace and cooperation has been termed “Arctic Exceptionalism”. This concept is based on several central tenets including the longstanding lack of interest in the region, the sufficient existing institutional framework for mitigating conflict, the enduring preference of the Arctic 8 states for cooperation in the region, and the overarching desire to foster a fruitful investment climate in the Arctic. Historical analysis of the Canada-Russia Arctic relationship does support the argument of Arctic Exceptionalism, but the resilience of Arctic Exceptionalism moving forward is less certain. The rise of Great Power Competition between the United States, China, and Russia has the potential to upset the existing balance in the region as increasingly competitive rhetoric from both sides complicates efforts at cooperation. Climate change and its influence have increased access to the Arctic region, drawing the attention of Arctic states and non-Arctic stakeholders such as China to try and capitalise on the vast natural resources previously trapped beneath sea ice. Disputes arising over resources in the Arctic region, competition between great powers, and the impact of extra-regional conflicts will test the ability of the existing international framework to govern the Arctic. It remains to be seen if increased GPC and the impact of climate change will inhibit or complicate cooperation between Canada and Russia in the Arctic, but it is clear that many of the preconditions for Arctic Exceptionalism are no longer fulfilled.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.036 | 0.023 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".