Historical sea-level changes in Australia: Testing the Arctic ice melt hypothesis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rates of regional and global sea-level rise during the 20th century were faster than in any \ncentury over the last 3000 years. Sea-level rise accelerated between ~1850 and ~1950, before \ngreenhouse gases became the dominant forcing agent, which suggests, in part, a natural \norigin. The acceleration appears to have been more rapid in the Southern Hemisphere, which, \naccording to geophysical theory, could point at a contribution from Northern Hemisphere \nland-based ice melt. More high-resolution relative sea level (RSL) reconstructions from the \nSouthern Hemisphere are needed to test this hypothesis, and to complement a limited dataset \nof proxy and tide-gauge records. This study establishes three new RSL records for \nsoutheastern Australia (covering ~1830 – 2018) from analyses of salt-marsh sediments. New \ntraining sets of contemporary salt-marsh foraminifera were used for transfer-function \nanalyses to derive palaeo sea-level estimates. High-resolution chronologies were established \nvia Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon, radiogenic lead, stable lead isotope ratios \nand pollen analyses. The new records demonstrate that, when corrected for glacio-isostatic \nadjustment, sea level has risen by ~0.2 – 0.3 m since ~1830 in southeastern Australia. Rates of \nsea-level rise were especially high over the first half of the 20th century, with maximum \naverage rates of 4.0 (-0.4 – 7.1 95 % confidence range) mm yr-1, but there is regional variability \nbetween sites. A modelled sea-level budget indicates that the acceleration was initially driven \nby the barystatic component (including gravity, rotation and deformation), but subsequently \namplified and driven by sterodynamic sea-level change. An analysis of the sea-level \nfingerprints of the barystatic component to 20th century global sea-level rise points at a \nsignificant input from the Greenland (17 %) and Antarctic Ice Sheets (11 %) as well as glaciers \nin Alaska (14 %), the Russian Arctic (10 %), western Canada and the US (9 %), south Asia and \nsouthern Andes (8 % each).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it