Unrecognized Exodus, Unaccepted Accountability : The Looming Shortage of Principals and Vice Principals in Ontario Public School Boards (Working Paper 24)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To the apparent surprise of policy makers at the provincial and school board levels, \nOntario’s public schools are about to experience a massive exodus of principals and vice principals. \nThis report, funded by a grant from the Ontario Principals’ Council, details the scale of the retirement \nwave currently hitting Ontario’s public school boards. Data collected from 946 practicing school \nadministrators suggest that the retirement rates will be almost 20 per cent higher than provincial \nestimates. \nAnecdotal evidence suggests that the pool of qualified candidates for these positions is also shrinking. \nAlready, fewer individuals are applying for each available vacancy. The study examines the major \ndissatisfiers in the current role of school principal as experienced by incumbents. Interviews were also \nconducted with 92 individuals identified as exceptional candidates for the principalship who had \nopted not to follow that career path in order to determine what factors they found most important in \ntheir decision making. The report concludes with recommendations for the province, school boards and principals' organizations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.016 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".