Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Broad-based commodity price declines occurred in the second half of 2014. Crude oil prices declined the most, down 55 percent to $47 per bbl (barrel) in early January, from a high of $115 per bbl in late-June 2014, bringing an end to a four-year period of high and stable prices. The oil price drop is the third-largest seven-month decline of the past three decades - only the 67 percent drop from November 1985 to March 1986 and the 75 percent drop from July to December 2008 were larger. Agricultural, metal, and precious metal prices weakened as well, down by 6, 8, and 9 percent, respectively, in 2014 fourth quarter (Q4) from the previous quarter. Ample supplies, disappointing global growth prospects, and an appreciating Unites States (U.S.) dollar have all weighed on prices. In oil markets, a sequence of (upward) supply and (downward) demand revisions, along with organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC's) abandoning of supply management, have played a pivotal role in the price collapse.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.300 | 0.274 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".