Party government duration in the Canadian provinces, 1945-2012
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Political duration has been investigated with rigour at the cross-national level of analysis and increasingly at the Canadian level. Canada proves to be an interesting case in the cross-national literature. However, the Canadian provincial level of analysis has not been examined within the political duration literature. Studies of political duration have typically focused on cabinet, government, leader and individual legislator duration while neglecting party duration. Yet, it is important to consider the length of time a party spends in power because of its influence on the policy process. Legislators, governments and parties can become apathetic after long periods in power, which can stagnate policy development. Some parties have governed for exceptionally long periods of time in the provinces while other parties have ceased to hold office after just one term. Why is it that some parties last longer than others? Using event-history modelling and multiple logistic regression this thesis examines three different research questions: 1) What accounts for the variation in party government survival 2) What factors explain individual government survival in Canada for the period, 1945-2012 3) What factors contribute to election survival, in order to explain the duration story. I test the variables that have been identified in the cross-national literature as affecting political duration in the Canadian provinces. Cox proportional hazard models are used to test the variables in the first and second research question, while a multiple logistic regression is used to test what factors contribute to election survival. The thesis finds that leadership change, fractionalization and minority status have an effect on duration. The findings in this thesis confirm that, like Canada, the provinces are exceptional cases. While some of the identified explanatory variables affect political duration in the provinces, the usual variables do not completely explain the political duration story in the Canadian provinces.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".