A 2300-year reconstruction of environmental change from Parc national du Mont-Orford, southeastern Québec, using high-resolution pollen, charcoal and X-ray fluorescence records
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We used a high-resolution lacustrine pollen record from Étang Fer-de-Lance (45°21'21.9"N, 72°13'35.3"W), southern Québec, Canada, together with microcharcoal, to infer forest dynamics, climate and human impacts over the past 2300 years. The lake is located in the sugar maple-basswood domain of the Northern Temperate Forest. We found that Fagus grandifolia (American beech) and Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) significantly declined over the past 700 years. Over the last millennium, Picea glauca (white spruce), Picea mariana/rubens (black and red spruce), and Pinus strobus (eastern white pine) significantly increased. Using the modern analog technique (MAT), we found a warm and dry first millennium AD, a somewhat less warm and less dry Medieval Climate Anomaly, and a cold and wet Little Ice Age. The signal for human modification of the landscape first appeared at ~AD 1550-1650 as increases in Ambrosia (ragweed) and Poaceae (grasses) from Indigenous agriculture. The signal of European settler landscape modification appeared at ~AD 1770 as the beginning of a steep, “classic” Ambrosia rise. It intensified over the subsequent 250 years as further increases in non-arboreal pollen taxa and early successional Acer (maple) species. Microcharcoal analysis showed that fire is a natural part of the sugar maple-basswood domain with a mean fire return interval of 515 years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".