Boligprisbobler 1819-2008 : en empirisk drøfting av boligprisbobler fra 1819 til 2008
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Denne masterutredningen er en empirisk drøfting av boligprisbobler fra 1819 til 2008. For å avsløre boblene blir det i hovedsak sett på avvik fra trend i en realboligprisindeks, P/R-koeffisienter og P/C-koeffisienter. Videre blir Hyman Minskys krisemodell brukt for å forklare bobleoppbyggingen. I analysen har jeg funnet fire bobler, der den siste fortsatt eksisterer. Både sykelavvik fra trend i realboligprisindeksen og P/R-koeffisientene gir et ensidig svar, med unntak av den andre boblen. Realboligprisindeksen finner at den bygger seg opp på slutten av 1920-tallet og sprekker ved inngangen til andre verdenskrig, mens P/R-koeffisientene flytter boblen tilbake til første verdenskrig og sprekker i 1919. Bobledateringen avhenger dermed på om man ser på sykelavvik fra realboligprisene eller P/R. Analysen viser også at alle boligprisboblene følger samme mønster der ekspansiv penge- og kredittpolitikk blåser opp prisene.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.026 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".