U.S. Economic Outlook. Quarterly developments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Highlights: -In the third quarter of 2018, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% after rising 4.2% in the second quarter. Growth remained strong, but its composition deteriorated, as inventories accounted for almost two-thirds of the growth. Growth was led by consumer spending, which contributed 2.45% to growth, down from 2.6% in the second quarter, and inventories, which contributed 2.3%. -U.S. employers added 2,268,000 jobs from January to November 2018, more jobs than in 2017. Unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% at the end of November, the lowest level since 1969, while year-on-year wage growth was unchanged at 3.1%, equal to the quickest pace since April 2009. -The productivity of nonfarm workers increased at a 2.3% rate in the third quarter, a deceleration from the 3% advance in the second quarter. Labor costs cooled, signaling an easing in inflation pressures. -The trade deficit widened to its highest level in 10 years in October, rising more than expected. Imports have surged due to solid demand growth, while exports have dipped from their May highs due to rising tariffs and a relatively strong dollar. -The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates by a quarter point three times in 2018 so far – in March, June and September – and signaled that one more increase is on the way in December, as Fed officials expressed confidence on the strength of the U.S. economy. -The U.S. economic outlook becomes murkier in 2019, as policymakers weigh risks including slower global growth and less fiscal stimulus
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.196 | 0.263 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".