Évaluation des risques avec des approches déterministe et probabiliste : apports et limites dans la protection des sources d'eau de surface au Québec
Bibliographic record
Abstract
RÉSUMÉ: La contamination de l’eau est une cause prépondérante de décès et de maladie d’origine hydrique; elle entraîne des répercussions importantes sur le bien-être quotidien de la population mondiale. Il est donc important d’assurer la protection des sources d’eau pour garantir la distribution d’une eau potable sûre et de meilleure qualité. Pour protéger les sources d’eau potable au Québec, le gouvernement provincial a édicté le Règlement sur le prélèvement des eaux et leur protection (RPEP) en 2014. L’article 75 de ce règlement exige que les responsables d’un prélèvement d’eau de surface de catégorie 1 réalisent une étude de vulnérabilité de leurs sites de prélèvement. Cette étude repose principalement sur une évaluation des risques associés aux menaces à l’aide d’une matrice des risques. Cette matrice combine la gravité des conséquences à la fréquence à laquelle la menace libère des contaminants. Cette méthode déterministe a des limites pour l’évaluation des risques, en particulier dans les bassins versants fortement urbanisés. Le développement de nouvelles méthodes d’évaluation des risques est donc nécessaire pour identifier les sources de risque et mettre en place des plans de protection des sources d’eau potable. L’objectif principal de ce projet de recherche est donc d’évaluer les risques associés aux menaces en amont des sources d’eau de surface destinées à l’alimentation en eau potable au Québec. Les sous-objectifs qui découlent de cet objectif principal sont les suivants: (1) évaluer les risques associés aux menaces avec une approche déterministe adaptée et alternative à celle requise par la règlementation du Québec, (2) développer de nouvelles méthodes probabilistes pour l’évaluation des risques associés aux menaces, et (3) identifier l’approche (déterministe ou probabiliste) la plus appropriée en matière de protection des sources d’eau potable au Québec.» ABSTRACT: Water pollution is a major contributor to waterborne diseases and mortality and greatly affects the daily well-being of people around the world. It is therefore crucial to preserve water sources to ensure the distribution of safe and enhanced quality drinking water. To protect drinking water sources in Quebec, the provincial government has adopted the Water Withdrawal and Protection Regulation (WWPR) in 2014. Section 75 of this regulation requires those responsible for a class 1 surface water withdrawal to conduct a vulnerability assessment of their drinking water intake sites. This assessment is based primarily on a risk assessment of the threats using a risk matrix. This matrix combines the severity of the onsequences with the frequency at which the threat releases ontaminants. This deterministic method has limitations the risk assessment, particularly in highly urbanized watersheds. The development of new risk assessment methods is needed to identify potential sources of risk and to set up protection plans for drinking water sources. The main objective of this research project is to assess the risks associated with threats upstream of surface drinking water intakes in Quebec. The specific objectives resulting from the main objective are the following: (1) to evaluate the risks associated with threats with a deterministic approach adapted and alternative to the one required by the Quebec regulation, (2) to develop novel probabilistic methods to evaluate the risks associated to threats, and (3) to identify the most appropriate approach (deterministic or probabilistic) for the drinking water source protection in Quebec.»
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.015 | 0.033 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".