Irrigation, water flows and impacts to farm-level economics in the Assiniboine Delta Aquifer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As populations increase, human, municipal, industrial and agricultural demands on water increase. It is imperative that legislation, management plans and efficient allocation plans be prepared that satisfy the needs of all stakeholders. Manitoba has long been a province with abundant fresh water resources. Only recently have the demands of multiple stakeholder groups put pressure on the available water, particularly in the Assiniboine Delta Aquifer (ADA) area. Potato growers in the ADA rely on the water in the aquifer as a source of irrigation water. Demands of local processors have increased the demand for irrigated potato acres in the area. The current water allocation rules limit the amount of available water to be used for irrigation, despite the large potential economic benefits of irrigated potatoes. This research examines three types of analyses to study the economic impact of water for irrigated potatoes in the ADA area: a simulation of the water balance in the ADA; a simulation of the water-yield-revenue relationship; and an on-farm capital, financial and economic valuation analysis. The combination of these three analyses provides insight into the possible availability of water for irrgation in the ADA and the economic value of the irrigated potato acres. Results of the water balance simulation suggest that the ADA has excess water capacity in normal and wet years that could be allocated to irrigators. In dry years, the allocation needs to be carefully managed, but the down-draw of the aquifer is minimal and rebounds quickly. Measured as EBITDA, the economic potential of the existing irrigated acres EBITDA ranges between 10 and 38 million dollars, and on-farm benifit-cost ratios and IRR confirm that potato farming is an excellent agricultural investment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".