California Consumer Sentiment Plunges 47 Percent in Last Days of March
Bibliographic record
Abstract
LOS ANGELES -April 1, 2020 -California consumer sentiment nosedived in the last few days of March as the consequences of Governor Newsom's stay at home order instituted on March 19 became apparent, according to the Chapman-CMC Consumer Sentiment Survey which was underway during this period.Based solely on responses from March 20 -26 California Consumer Sentiment declined an unprecedented 47% percent on the previous quarter to 51.5.By comparison, the 4th quarter 2019 California Index stood at 96.9."An index at this level is typically seen in the depths of a bad recession, such as the 2008 financial crisis.But it usually takes 6-9 months from the onset of the recession for sentiment to deteriorate this far.Having such a rapid drop in just over two weeks is new territory.In early March when the field survey began respondents were concerned but cautiously optimistic.As events unfolded, we were able to track on a daily basis a marked drop culminating in a precipitous decline in the last week of our study," said Cameron Shelton,
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".