Fire activity in northeast Ontario during the Holocene as inferred by sedimentary macrocharcoal
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Wildfire management can benefit from knowledge of past wildfire response to changing environmental conditions. We extracted a high-resolution macrocharcoal record from a small deep lake with a relatively small watershed in northeastern Ontario to examine evidence of fire activity in the area over the last 6,300 cal yBP. Peak analysis of the macrocharcoal sequence showed a relatively stable average fire return interval (FRI) of 155-183 years from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) till present. Although the FRI remained relatively stable, charcoal accumulation rates, background charcoal levels, and peak magnitude varied between periods of substantial change in vegetation delineated by pollen analysis including a period of maximum warmth from c. 6,300 to 3,600 years before present when pollen-inferred temperatures were ~2ºC warmer than present. Overall high charcoal levels coupled with high variability occurred during this warm and humid HTM Period while charcoal levels were consistently low during the cool and dry Post-HTM Period (3,600 – 1,600 cal yBP). Charcoal levels increased and became variable again during the cool and wet Modern Period (1,600 cal yBP – present) but did not reach the high concentrations observed in the HTM. The variation of charcoal levels within pollen-inferred climate zones showed that wildfire activity on the regional-to-local scale (such as fire size) changed in response to climate and vegetation despite relatively stable FRIs. In addition, charcoal morphology was quantified and compared to the climate zones and showed distinct trends in relative abundances of morphological particles in the different climate periods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".