Inching Our Way Back: The Nation's Tepid Employment Recovery
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The economy of the United States is more than three and one-half years into the recovery from the 18-month-long Great Recession, which started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. It took until the fourth quarter of 2011 for the nation’s total output of goods and services (Gross Domestic Product, or GDP) to finally surpass its pre-recession peak (the fourth quarter of 2007). Thus, it took 10 quarters to achieve full output recovery (second-quarter 2009 to fourth-quarter 2011). However, as of December 2012, a full year later, the United States had recovered only 61.6 percent of the total employment loss that it suffered during the recession. Compared with the rebounds from all post–World War II recessions, the length of the current employment recovery period is unprecedented. Private-sector employment in the United States declined by a staggering 8.8 million jobs between December 2007 and February 2010.1 The long recovery period then commenced and is still under way. From February 2010 to December 2012, the nation regained over 5.9 million private-sector jobs, a 67.7 percent rate of private-sector recovery. Thus, the United States is still inching its way out of an extraordinarily deep employment-loss hole. It needs to add 2.8 million more private-sector jobs just to return to pre-recession employment levels. This excruciatingly long recovery period may not be due only to the sheer depth of the downturn. The nation’s industrial composition has been evolving, with private service-providing activities accounting for both increasing shares of the economy and of recessionary employment losses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".