Long-run and short-run response of economic and environmental indicators to pandemic and other global shocks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Global shocks, such as pandemics and wars, have an inevitable impact on the economic and environmental indicators. Consequently, the COVID-19 pandemic has raised many questions about its cross-country effect on the shape of economic recovery and its environmental sustainability. This research studies the short and long-term response of GDP per capita, CO2 emission per capita, and CO2 emission intensity to pandemics and other major global shocks such as wars and financial crises by utilizing the local projection approach. This study shows that for most analyzed countries, the end of a pandemic positively impacts both output and emissions in the short run, with the latter responding sharper than the former. However, a reverse response to pandemics in a few countries like the USA and Canada is observable, which contrasts with the evidence emerging within Europe. also, we found that the end of war produces a similar impact as a pandemic on emission intensity, while for financial crises the evidence is mixed. The positive response of emission indicators to the end of a pandemic eventually leads us to conclude that the recovery from the current pandemic is likely to be brown for Europe, unless policy packages that are different from historical post-crisis interventions are undertaken. The European Green Deal appears promising in this respect
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".