Potential impacts of climate change on ranges of commercial marine species in the northwest Atlantic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An increase in greenhouse gas emissions has led to a rise in average global surface air and ocean temperatures. This rise in sea surface temperatures can cause changes in species' distributions, particularly those species close to their thermal tolerance limits. Thus, species may be retreating northward to higher latitudes and colder temperatures, while other species may benefit from sea surface warming. This thesis addresses the potential shifts in range of commercial marine species along the Northwest Atlantic. The study focuses on 33 marine species harvested in Canadian as well as US waters and includes macroalgae (e.g., kelp and rockweeds); shellfish (e.g., clams, mussels, oysters, crabs, and lobster); and finfish (e.g., cod, halibut, and salmon). A bioclimate envelope approach is used to determine the current sea surface temperatures associated with each species' geographical distribution and, ultimately, identify its thermal limits. Future distributions are determined using sea surface temperatures projected by Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models and Earth System Models prepared for the upcoming IPCC fifth assessment report (the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CanESM2, the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2-ES, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS-E2-R, the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CSIRO-Mk3.6). The output from runs from both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 are used to predict the potential geographic distribution of each species for the year ~2100. The shift of species ranges in response to climatic change has major implications for the management of marine resources and governance providing valuable information to build a framework for developing adaptation options.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".