Statistical Bulletin: International Trade in Goods in Latin America and the Caribbean - second quarter 2016 - 24
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Key Messages ➢ Through the first half of 2018, the total goods exports of Latin America and the Caribbean amounted to US$ 530.375 billion while imports were US$ 521.542 billion.The trade surplus of US$ 8.834 billion over the period was predominantly the result of the recovery in prices of many primary products exported from the region, particularly fuels and metals.Trade in the region rose with respect to the first half of 2017, but less than the global average in both exports (+11.3% vs. +12.8%)and imports (+12.5% vs. +14.2%).Shipments from Latin America and the Caribbean outpaced export growth in the Asia-Pacific region and the United States but grew more slowly than those of Europe.The region outstripped only the United States in terms of import growth during the first half of the year.➢ The large trade surplus in MERCOSUR outweighed deficits in the Andean Community, Central America, and the Caribbean generating a positive regional trade balance in the first half of 2018.The highest export growth in the region occurred in Venezuela, B.R., followed by Bolivia, P.S., Chile, and Peru, reflecting the continued recovery of fuel and metal prices.➢ Mining and fuel products grew fastest among both shipments (+24.6%)from and purchases (+23.2%) by the region.In addition to the 30.7% increase in the global benchmark petroleum price, the prices of aluminum (+17.6%),copper (+20.2%),iron and steel products (+14.5%),lead (+10.4%) and zinc (22.2%) rose sharply.In contrast, falling prices in numerous agricultural commodities, led by declines in sugar (-25.6%),coffee (-12.2%), and food oil and oil seeds (-5.3%), contributed to the decline in exports from Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Honduras.➢ Intra-regional trade grew 13.7% in the first half of 2018 and accounted for 15.8% of the region's exports to the world (excluding Mexico it was 21.4%).Trade within the Central American Common Market, which is already the integration scheme with the highest proportion of intra-bloc trade in the region, increased its share further by 1.3 percentage points.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.020 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.080 | 0.035 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".