Systematic review and meta-analysis of the predictive value of four risk assessment instruments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We systematically reviewed the available evidence on the discrimination of four well-established Risk-Assessment Instruments (RAIs) used to estimate the probability of recidivism for general (Level of Service Inventory-Revised; LSI-R), violent (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide; VRAG), sexual (Static-99R), and intimate partner violent offences (Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment; ODARA). We conducted bivariate logit-normal random effects meta-analysis of the sensitivity and false positive rates and modelled the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) using BRs as reported in a) the construction samples of each RAI and b) recent official statistics and peer-reviewed articles for different offence categories and countries. To assess risk of bias we used the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.036 | 0.150 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.019 | 0.035 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.010 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".