Radiocarbon and tree-ring data for dating Mount Rainier's Electron Mudflow
Bibliographic record
Abstract
New dating of lahar-killed trees underscores volcano hazards in the Puget Sound metropolitan area. Beginning as a landslide from the west flank of Mount Rainier, Washington, the Electron Mudflow swept more than 60 km down the Puyallup River drainage into areas now heavily populated. Wiggle-matching of seven radiocarbon ages from buried, bark-bearing Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) trees brackets the mudflow’s age between 1477–1522 CE with 99.7 percent certainty. The trees with bark all died the same year. Analysis of the Electron chronology using crossdating of tree rings best matched with chronologies from low-elevation sites, especially a Douglas-fir chronology from Vancouver Island, Canada, to show that the Electron trees died in 1507 CE. These data are in three tables, containing properties of the lahar-killed Douglas-fir included in the Electron tree-ring chronology (C14_S1.csv); radiocarbon data from trees killed in the Electron Mudflow (C14_S2.csv); and properties of long tree-ring chronologies in Oregon, Washington, and southern British Columbia and their relationship to the Electron chronology (C14_S3.csv). These are supplementary data tables to support the larger work by Black et al. 2025. Data users are strongly encouraged to refer to that larger work for additional details.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".