e-brief Lasting Bang for the Stimulus Buck: Priorities for the 2009 Federal Budget
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Unusual economic and political circumstances surround the framing of the 2009 federal budget. A period of global spending outrunning productive capacity has ended with financial crisis and recession in much of the world, Canada included. The sudden slump has prompted demand for, and expectations of, fiscal action. Although aggressive promotion of credit and money growth by the Bank of Canada and other central banks is the most promising tool to foster renewed growth, smart fiscal policy can do much to help. Canada’s 2009 federal budget should serve the complementary aims of promoting recovery while keeping the country visibly on course toward its longer-term fiscal and economic goals. A Framework for Fiscal Sustainability An effective fiscal response in current circumstances has a critical component. Short-term measures to boost demand must preserve confidence in the country's long-term position, lest nervous households and businesses retrench in anticipation of hard times over the horizon, and compromise the effort. Over the next decade, the pressure of demographic change on Canadian governments will intensify. By 2016, population aging will push the combined cost of health, education, seniors and family programs persistently above today's levels (Robson, Forthcoming). So Ottawa needs a framework that credibly signals no sudden tax increases, painful spending cuts, or burgeoning debt and interest payments once the recession is over and the demographic pressure begins in earnest. The federal government has made steady reductions in its own debt, and in the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product (GDP), touchstones of fiscal prudence. The impact of the current slump on Ottawa's bottom line, together with the stimulus so many Canadians expect, will raise the federal accumulated deficit in fiscal years 2009/10 to 2011/12. What is needed is a practical plan to return the accumulated deficit to its 2008/09 level by 2016/17; one that is credible enough to assure Canadians that the nation’s finances are under control. I N D
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.011 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.012 | 0.009 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.051 | 0.013 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".