Collision of a Pineapple Express with an Arctic Outbreak over Complex Terrains
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The interaction of a moisture-laden Pacific southwesterly flow, known as “Pineapple Express”, with very cold air from a strong arctic outbreak during 1 – 5 December 2007 produced a record number of high impact weather events across British Columbia of Canada. Among the weather hazards are bitterly cold wind chills, heavy snow, freezing rain, heavy rain, and strong winds. The unusual collision of two contrasting air masses caused unprecedented forecast challenges for both the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models and meteorologists at the Pacific Storm Prediction Centre (PSPC) of Environment Canada. In this study, the evolution of the weather systems and the observed severe weather events during this storm cycle are analyzed. Weather forecasts by the GEM models and PSPC meteorologists are compared with the observed high impact weather events during the storm. It is demonstrated that meteorologists at PSPC greatly improved the model forecasts by considering various local effects of the complex terrain in British Columbia that the GEM models cannot resolve well. In particular, with warm advection aloft, it is acknowledged that the GEM regional model tends to underestimate the cold air entrenched in some narrow valleys. The model guidance was therefore doomed to failure at forecasting the widespread and prolonged freezing rain in the midst of the storm.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".