Finding Space for the Island Marble Butterfly: Modeling the Habitat of a Highly Endangered Endemic Butterfly in the Salish Sea Ecoregion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The island marble butterfly (Euchloe ausonides insulanus) is an extremely endangered butterfly found only on islands in the Salish Sea ecoregion. The butterfly relies on coastal prairies for habitat; these prairies have become extremely rare because of habitat destruction, severely limiting the amount of available habitat for the butterfly, which now exists at a single site on a single island. Species that only exist at a single site face a high risk of extinction, so finding more habitat for the island marble butterfly is a crucial component of its conservation. I created habitat suitability models to find more habitat for the butterfly in the Salish Sea ecoregion. These models indicate that the fundamental niche of the butterfly is primarily limited by precipitation and that suitable habitat for the butterfly is limited to areas where its host plants can grow within the rainshadows of the Olympic Mountains and Vancouver Island Ranges. Much of the highest-quality potential habitat is located in the San Juan Islands and on Whidbey Island, but additional potential habitat exists on the Olympic Peninsula and Vancouver Island. Because most potential habitat for the butterfly is located in and around agricultural fields, cooperation with farmers is essential for the butterfly’s conservation. While the island marble may be able to tolerate warmer and drier summers, the indirect effects of climate change such as shifts in phenology and an increase in extreme weather events such as storm surges pose the highest long-term threat to the butterfly’s survival outside of habitat loss. Preserving the butterfly’s current habitat and creating more habitat for the butterfly, especially on San Juan Island, should be the first priority of conservation practitioners working with the species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".