Abundance and Distribution of an Exceptional Number ofRed-necked Grebes in Western Lake Ontario during Spring 2019
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Red-necked Grebe is a regular spring migrant on the Great Lakes and occasionally observed in very large numbers, particularly along the northwestern shore of Lake Ontario. Aerial surveys were flown to document abundance, distribution and habitat use of waterfowl and conspicuous waterbirds along the Ontario shorelines of the lower Great Lakes. On 7 April 2019, we observed a very large number of Red-necked Grebes, estimated at 12,395 individuals, concentrated in western Lake Ontario. The majority of these birds were located offshore along a 20 km span of shoreline between Frenchman’s Bay (Pickering, Ontario) and Bluffer’s Beach (Scarborough, Ontario). However, an exceptional number of Red-necked Grebes, estimated at about 11,000 birds, was observed along an approximately 2 km span of shoreline near the Scarborough Bluffs. Red-necked Grebes also were observed on two subsequent surveys in western Lake Ontario, but their estimated total numbers were considerably lower on 28 April (1,326 birds) and 8 May (32 birds). Given that the largest published minimum continental population estimate for this species is 45,000 birds, the 12,395 estimated birds we observed represents slightly more than 25% of that number. This sighting, along with several others over the past several years, represents a significant proportion of the North American population and highlights the importance of western Lake Ontario for spring migrant Red-necked Grebes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".