The Causality among Money Supply, Price and Income: Evidence from Taiwan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[[abstract]]由於快速的經濟成長與穩定的物價一直是經濟政策的主要目標，而適當的貨幣政策能給社會一個穩定的經濟環境。過去許多文獻曾探討影響台灣經濟之重要因素，根據Friedman的現代貨幣數量學說或Keynes的貨幣理論，均顯示貨幣供給、物價與所得間相互關係密切。因此，本研究擬針對台灣地區貨幣供給、物價與所得之因果關係進行分析。樣本期間為1981年至2012年之季資料。 實證結果顯示，M1A、M2與CPI之間具有雙向因果關係，CPI領先M1B。貨幣供給指標(包括：M1A、M1B及M2)與所得(包括：名目GDP、實質GDP) 之間具有雙向因果關係。單位所得貨幣(包括：M1A/RGDP、M1B/RGDP及M2/RGDP)與CPI之間具有雙向因果關係。換言之，M2變動將導致物價水準變動，而物價水準變動亦將促使M2變動；貨幣供給變動將導致所得變動，而所得變動亦將促使貨幣供給變動；單位所得貨幣變動將導致物價水準變動，物價水準變動亦將促使單位所得貨幣變動。本研究實證結果與貨幣數量理論相互肳合。 Due to rapid economic growth and stable price has been the main goal of economic policy, and appropriate monetary policy can give a stable economic environment to the community. Many papers focus to explore the important factors affecting the economy of Taiwan, and according to Friedman's modern quantity theory of money or Keynesian theory of money, among money supply, price and income have a high correlation. Therefore, this study plans to analysis the causality of money supply, price and income of Taiwan. The beginning of this research period is from first quarter of 1981 to fourth quarter of 2012. The results of this study found that M1A, M1B have bi-directionality causality with CPI and CPI will affect M1B. Money supply (including: M1A, M1B, M2) and income (including: Nominal GDP, Real GDP) have bi-directionality causality. M/Y (including: M1A/RGDP, M1B/RGDP, M2/RGDP) and CPI have bi-directionality causality. In other words, variations in M2 will lead to variations in the price level, and variations in the price level will induce variations in M2. Variations in money supply will lead to variations in income, and variations in income will induce variations in money supply. Variations in M/Y will lead to variations in the price level, and variations in the price level will induce variations in M/Y. The empirical result is consistent with the quantity theory of money.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".