A Machine Learning Model Based on Clinical Factors to Predict the Efficacy of First-Line Immunochemotherapy for Patients With Advanced Gastric Cancer: Retrospective Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The development of immunotherapy has provided new hope for patients with advanced gastric cancer (AGC). However, due to the high heterogeneity of the disease, the efficacy of first-line immunochemotherapy varies among patients. There is still a lack of simple and effective models to predict the efficacy of immunochemotherapy in this setting. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify critical factors and develop predictive models to evaluate the efficacy of first-line immunochemotherapy in patients with AGC using clinically available data. The goal was to offer evidence-based guidance for clinical practice and enable personalized treatment strategies. METHODS: To evaluate the effectiveness of first-line immunochemotherapy in AGC, we retrospectively collected clinical data from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2018 and October 2023. The data collected were divided into a training set (168/240, 70%) and an internal validation set (72/240, 30%). Additionally, a temporal validation cohort of 76 patients recruited from November 2023 to September 2024 was assembled to further evaluate the predictive performance of the models. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, along with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, and integrated clinical expertise to identify key predictors of treatment efficacy and to construct the LASSO-Cox model. We developed 4 models (LASSO-Cox, random survival forest [RSF], extreme gradient boosting, and survival support vector machine) and evaluated their performance using the C-index, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. The optimal model was interpreted using Shapley additive explanations, and its risk scores were used to stratify patients for Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: natural killer cells, and the presence of liver metastasis were key prognostic factors influencing patient outcomes. Patients in the low-risk group, as determined by the RSF model's risk score, exhibited a significantly higher progression-free survival rate than those in the high-risk group, further validating the value of the RSF model for risk stratification. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to use machine learning algorithms to develop a predictive model for the efficacy of first-line immunochemotherapy in AGC, and to identify key predictors of treatment outcome. The results indicate that the RSF model not only enables precise stratification of patients likely to benefit but, more importantly, provides quantifiable decision support for individualized clinical strategies, underscoring its potential value in clinical decision-making.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".