An Agent‐Based Model of Youth Nonmedical Prescription Opioid Use in Ontario: Forecast Validation and Future Projection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Amid COVID-19-related in-person school closures in 2021, an agent-based simulation grounded in social impact theory was implemented and documeted to investigate the effects of in-person school closure on nonmedical prescription opioid use among adolescents in Ontario, Canada. The results of model simulations forecasted an alarming rebound effect in the opioid use prevalence after the lifting of in-person school closures and identified secure medication storage in households as an effective strategy for mitigating associated risks. This study evaluates this result by comparing the baseline projection from the previously published study with newly released 2023 data from the Ontario Student Drug Use and Health Survey. Furthermore, it employs the developed agent-based model to simulate the projection through 2030 and assesses the efficacy of secure medication storage in households for the coming years. The study confirms that the previously published simulation projection for 2023 closely aligns with observed data, showing nonmedical prescription opioid use prevalence among Ontario adolescents nearly doubling from 2021 to 2023. Additionally, the results show that nonmedical prescription opioid use prevalence among youth is projected to remain at these elevated levels. Critically, the findings suggest that the temporal window for effective secure medication storage interventions has elapsed, and these interventions are now expected to have minimal impact on reducing this increase, even when applied extensively. The agreement between reported predictions and observed data demonstrates that a simulation model with relevant conceptual foundation can accurately predict future trends and provide sufficient lead time for policymakers to implement interventions within critical time-sensitive windows to alter undesirable trajectories before public health crises escalate.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".