Hybrid Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Framework with Community Detection for Spatiotemporal Demand Prediction in Micromobility Systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The rapid growth of dockless electric scooter (e-scooter) sharing services has transformed short-distance urban mobility, offering convenience and sustainability benefits while amplifying challenges related to demand imbalance, fleet rebalancing, and spatial inequity. Accurate spatiotemporal demand prediction is therefore essential for optimizing resource allocation and supporting data-driven policy interventions. This study proposes a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) with a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and community detection to enhance short-term prediction of e-scooter pick-up and drop-off demands. The Louvain algorithm is employed to partition urban areas into mobility-based communities, enabling the model to capture functional connectivity rather than relying solely on geographic proximity. Using real-world e-scooter trip data from Calgary, Canada, the model’s performance is evaluated against established baselines, including a Masked Fully Convolutional Network (MFCN) and conventional GRU architectures. Results show that the proposed approach achieves up to 11.8% improvement in mean absolute error (MAE) compared with the MFCN baseline and more robust generalization across temporal horizons. The findings demonstrate that integrating community structures into graph-based learning effectively captures complex urban dynamics, providing practical insights for sustainable micromobility operation and service deployment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".