Guiando o controle biológico da erva-de-jacaré por Agasicles hygrophila (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) em macroescala: onde estão as áreas globais potencialmente adequadas para aplicá-lo e como isso pode mudar em cenários de mudanças climáticas.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Invasive species can have many negative impacts on the biodiversity, ecosystem services, human health and the economy, and therefore need to be managed. An amphibious weed of global importance, Alternanthera philoxeroides, and the macroecological patterns of its biological control were evaluated using one of its main specialist herbivores, Agasicles hygrophila. This was considered the first successful case of biological control of an aquatic plant, although it is not equally effective on a global scale. Due to their different environmental tolerances and the greater phenotypic plasticity of the plant, the distribution of both species do not always overlap in the globe, creating geographic variability in the efficiency of biocontrol. The first approach was to analyze the current global potential distribution of A. philoxeroides and A. hygrophila to seek the areas of overlaps and gaps between them. The overlapping areas would be the most relevant for using A. hygrophila as alligator weed biological control in the globe. However, in response of climate change, it seems that the alligator weed is worryingly spreading across the globe, which can worsen in future scenarios and alter its distribution in the next decades. The second approach evaluated the effects of climate change on the global distribution of A. philoxeroides and A. hygrophila. New distribution areas for both species in future global warming scenarios and new overlapping and non-overlapping areas across the globe were identified. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were applied in both chapters to predict the potential distribution of the two species in present and future scenarios considering different environmental predictors in each one. Currently, the southeast coast of the USA, southeast China and New South Wales, Australia are the most favorable areas in the world to apply alligator weed biocontrol, while the west coast and mid-latitudes in the east of the USA and the eastern Australia are not favorable. The results were corroborated by reports in the literature that demonstrated successful control in overlapping areas and failures in non-overlapping areas of the models’ distributions. However, while general geographic patterns will hold in future scenarios, it is predicted a major northward expansion of the alligator weed, but not of the insect, especially in the USA, Canada, Europe, China, South Korea and Japan, which will create a new zone of low or no control efficiency at higher latitudes. These macroecological patterns will help direct efforts to apply the biological control for the alligator weed not only today, but also in future climate change scenarios.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".