Colony dynamics and persistence of Ivory Gull breeding in Canada.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite the importance of assessing the viability of small and endangered populations, often few demographic data are available. However, when counts are available from discrete sites, a colony- or site-based approach can be useful. We used recent counts of Ivory Gull, Pagophila eburnea, a rare species that breeds at remote sites in the high Arctic, to model colony dynamics and population persistence. Dramatic declines in numbers of pairs nesting in Canada led to the uplisting of this species to Endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada in 2006. Colonies continued to decline from 2004 to 2006, with sites at the southern edge of the breeding range on Baffin Island almost completely extirpated; only one pair remained in 2005 and 2006. We used colony counts at 24 sites on southern Ellesmere Island and Devon Island from 2002 to 2006 to model extinction and colonization rates. Extinction rates were high at 0.735 ± 0.077 (mean ± SE) and increased for smaller colonies. Colonization rates were low at 0.189 ± 0.054 (mean ± SE), new colonies were small (mean: 7.7 pairs), and there was no evidence of local rescue effects from nearby colonies. Based on these rates, a population projection model was constructed using a starting population of 225 pairs at the 24 sites. The projected population reached an equilibrium of approximately 30 pairs in only 8 yr. The large and isolated colony on Seymour Island has declined at 2.7%/yr (95% confidence limits: –13.9, 8.5) since 1974, and had low but wide-ranging probabilities of going extinct within 20 yr. The suggestion that Ellesmere Island may be the only site where breeding Ivory Gull will persist in the future is supported by the recent discovery of new colonies there in 2006.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".