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Dueling Double Deep Q-Networks for Regime-Aware and Risk-Conscious Stock Trading: Evidence from NIFTY 50

2025· article· W7130596087 on OpenAlexaff
Eluri Rithwik, Srujan Avasarala, Achanta Satya Karthik, Katta Rama Rakshith, K. Mallikharjuna Rao

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Language
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicStock Market Forecasting Methods
Canadian institutionsArtificial Intelligence in Medicine (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsReinforcement learningSharpe ratioStock marketProfitability indexStock exchangeDatabase transactionVolatility (finance)Stock market indexMarkov chain

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a promising approach for automated stock trading, but standard deep Q-networks (DQNs) often struggle with volatile market dynamics and risk management. This paper presents a comprehensive study of trading the NIFTY 50 index using an RL agent based on DQN, enhanced with multiple novel improvements. We propose an adaptive action space that flexibly adjusts to market volatility, market regime detection via unsupervised learning (e.g., Hidden Markov Models or K-Means clustering) to inform the agent of bull/bear phases, and a composite reward function that balances profit with a Sharpe ratio proxy, drawdown penalties, and transaction costs. The DQN algorithm is further refined through risk-aware Q-value updates using soft Q-learning principles to encourage prudent exploration, and a multi-objective dueling network architecture that separately estimates profit and drawdown-centric value functions. To improve generalization, the agent is trained with synthetic data augmentation using noise injection and generative modeling, and its state representation is compressed via an autoencoder bottleneck to denoise and reduce dimensionality. The trading environment includes budget constraints and leverage mechanics to simulate margin trading, and incorporates macroeconomic indicators (USD/INR exchange rate, inflation, oil prices) into the state space for a richer market context. Using a modified Chainer DQN framework, we evaluate variants of DQN, Double DQN, and Dueling Double DQN on historical NIFTY 50 data. The results show that our improved Dueling Double DQN agent achieves superior performance, with higher profitability and risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe proxy) on the test period, compared to baseline approaches. These findings illustrate how integrating domain-specific insights (volatility, regimes, macro factors) and advanced RL techniques can yield a robust trading agent for emerging market indices like NIFTY 50.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.020
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.030
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Meta-epidemiology (narrow), Science and technology studies, Scholarly communication, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.914
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0200.030
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.003
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.001
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.132
GPT teacher head0.406
Teacher spread0.274 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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