Recovery potential modelling of Northern Brook Lamprey (Ichthyomyzon fossor) – Saskatchewan-Nelson River populations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) assessed the Saskatchewan – Nelson River populations of Northern Brook Lamprey (NBL, Ichthyomyzon fossor) as Endangered. Here population modelling is presented to assess the impacts of harm, determine abundance and habitat recovery targets, and conduct long-term projections of population recovery in support of a recovery potential assessment (RPA). The model incorporated parameter uncertainty, environmental stochasticity, and density-dependence into population projections. The analysis revealed that NBL populations were highly sensitive to perturbations in vital rates that affect recruitment such as survival to the larval stage, fecundity, and survival during metamorphosis, as well as ages 1–3 larval survival. As the population growth rate (𝜆𝜆) increased, the sensitivity of all vital rates to perturbation, except for the survival rates of age 4+ larvae, also increased. Population viability analysis was conducted to determine potential recovery targets with demographic sustainability, defined as a self-sustaining population over 60 years, which was achievable with a population size (MPV) of approximately 2,569 [95% confidence interval: 1,110, 4,950] adult females. The current population size, growth rates, and density was unknown for these populations; therefore, a range of initial population sizes and growth rates was used to estimate recovery times and minimum area for population viability (MAPV). The mean recovery time for the lowest initial population sizes and growth rates was 51 years, and the mean MAPV was 6.3 km2 for the lowest density and highest MPV estimates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".