Stock Assessment for Eastern Georges Bank Cod
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Status The 2024 spawning stock biomass (SSB, 10.9 kt) is at 42% of the limit reference point (LRP; 24.9 kt), placing the stock in the critical zone with a very high probability (>98%). Trends The 2024 SSB is 10.9 kt, which represents a small increase from the series low of 7.96 kt in 2022. Fishing mortality (F) has remained below 0.05 since 2017 and the 2024 estimate is 0.03. Over the last three years, recruits (per unit of SSB) have been the highest since 1978, within the context of record low spawning stock biomass. However, this has not resulted in sustained increases in the number of fish at ages 3+. Estimated loss of aged 4+ fish continues to be high, with natural mortality (M) inferred to be the primary cause. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The most commonly identified contributors to natural mortality for Atlantic Cod in this region are high temperature and predation. Both have undergone substantial changes in recent years. The presence of older fish in deeper waters within the area indicates earlier movement off the bank post-spawning. Although the mechanism for this shift has not been identified, it is likely related to ecosystem changes (e.g., temperature, predation, competition). Stock Advice Given the long-term projection of biomass, it is unlikely that the SSB will exceed the LRP within two generations, even in the absence of fishing. Projections for this stock are provided for 2026 under various fishing scenarios, including no catch. There is no fishing level which will improve stock outlook under current productivity dynamics. Removals of 473 mt (F=0.052) correspond to the maximum F associated with a very low probability (<5%) of preventable decline in two generations (2032). Other Management Questions A review of the May Test Fishery data found higher proportions of ripe and spawning Cod and Haddock in May compared to June through August. While an acceptable risk threshold for interactions with spawning Cod and/or Haddock has not been established, the results of the analysis demonstrate an earlier opening of the fishery would have a higher risk of interaction with spawning Cod and/or Haddock.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".